Bali's Rainy Season Is Running Late This Year: Better Sunrise Odds at Mount Batur Through December 2026

If you are planning a Bali trip for the next couple of months, there is a weather story worth knowing about. October usually marks the start of the shift toward Bali's rainy season. This year, it is not happening on schedule, and that is good news if a Mount Batur sunrise is on your list.

What is actually happening

According to Bali Discovery, Indonesia's official meteorological agency BMKG is forecasting that Bali's 2026 to 2027 rainy season will start late across the entire island. Aminudin Al Roniri, head of the Bali Class II Climatology Station, said on 29 September 2026 that only a small part of Bali, around 15 percent of its seasonal zones, including areas like Banjar, Sukasada, Baturiti, Pupuan, Petang and Payangan, will see rain arrive in November. The remaining 85 percent of the island is not expected to see its rainy season start until December.

Forecaster Trayi Budi Samantu linked the delay to El Nino, specifically warming sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific against cooling in parts of eastern Indonesian waters, which affects how rain clouds form over the archipelago. The climatology station puts the start roughly two to three months later than usual in several areas, with the season expected to last about four months, until April 2027.

What this means for a Mount Batur sunrise

Cloud cover, not rain itself, is usually what ruins a Mount Batur sunrise. A delayed rainy season generally means more consecutive clear mornings through October, November, and into early December than you would normally expect this time of year.

That is not a guarantee. Mount Batur has its own microclimate and cloud cover can roll in regardless of the island-wide season, and BMKG's own forecaster noted that when the rain does arrive this year, a shorter season does not necessarily mean less of it; it could come in shorter, heavier bursts rather than being spread out. So this is better odds, not a promise.

Should this change your plans?

If you were already debating when to book a sunrise trek or jeep tour, this stretch of the year is looking more favorable than usual. We have covered the general seasonal patterns in more detail in our guide to the best time to trek Mount Batur. This post is really just a timely update to that: as of late September 2026, the odds are tilted a bit further in your favor than a typical year.

FAQ

When does Bali's rainy season normally start? Typically somewhere between October and December in a usual year. This year's delay of roughly two to three months is measured against that normal window, so parts of the island that would usually be seeing rain by now are expected to stay dry into November or December instead.

Does this mean no rain at all until December? No. It means the consistent, island-wide rainy season is starting later, not that every single day between now and then is guaranteed dry. Mount Batur also has its own microclimate, so cloud cover at the summit can still roll in on an otherwise clear week.

Will better weather make Mount Batur more crowded? Possibly. More consecutive clear mornings generally means more successful sunrises, and that tends to mean more bookings and a busier viewpoint, not less. If crowding matters more to you than the odds of clear skies, that's worth weighing too.

How reliable is a seasonal forecast like this? BMKG is Indonesia's official meteorological agency and the best available source for this, but a seasonal outlook is a probability, not a guarantee, especially this far out. Treat it as better odds worth planning around, and check conditions again closer to your actual travel dates.

What if I'm visiting after December 2026? By then the rainy season should be properly underway across most of the island. Our guide to the best time to trek Mount Batur covers what to expect in a normal rainy season month.

Should I book now because of this? If you were already planning a trip in this window, the odds are genuinely in your favor compared to a typical year. Just know that no guide, and no forecast, can promise a clear sky on any single morning.

Book while the skies are cooperating

Whether you are taking the sunrise trek on foot or the jeep tour, we check conditions daily and will tell you honestly if a morning does not look promising. No guide can control the weather, but this year, the odds are a little more in your favor than usual.